Cheer up, Labour and other opposition parties – last night was PERFECT for you

December 13, 2018

by Martin Odoni

Following on from what I wrote last night about the Vote Of Confidence in Theresa May (and please consider that many a football manager down the years has received the dreaded ‘Vote-Of-Confidence’ from their clubs, and look what usually still happens to them in almost no-time-at-all); –

On social media, I am seeing that a lot of Labour supporters in particular seem really disappointed that May was not voted out last night. That is an understandable instinctive reaction, but they are not thinking things through. If May had lost, that would have given the Conservative Party a possible way out of the mess they have mired themselves in. A really uncomfortable and messy way out, but navigable. What happened instead has in fact intensified their log-jam. The odds were always strongly against May losing the vote, and with the actual numbers involved, last night really was the worst possible outcome of the vote for the Tories; –

The ideal result for them would be an overwhelming vote of support for May, probably, as it would be ideal for party unity and reinforcing her authority.

But the next-best would have been for May to lose outright. That way, the party could at least elect a new leader, who will be given a nice Honeymoon period without serious opposition and whom the ranks could unite around, and with whom the Democratic Unionist Party might have been able to do business again.

As last night has turned out though, the Tory Party got an indecisive victory for the incumbent, of the type that falls precisely between two stools for them. If the leader of the Conservatives survives a No-Confidence-Vote within the party, there cannot be another one for twelve months. So now, the Tories will, for at least a year, have to keep following a Prime Minister whom the DUP no longer trust (because she has negotiated a Brexit deal that leaves a serious chance of there being a Hard Border in the Irish Sea, despite her repeated assurances to them that she would not), and whose credibility has been seriously undermined by having over 33% of her party vote for her to go.

So last night has done exactly what most Tory opponents should have been hoping for; the DUP are now in the corner all the opposition parties have been waiting for, while at the same time May is now completely hamstrung by over a hundred rebels on her own backbenches who have tasted real blood.

This leaves the DUP in a ‘no-further-hedging-possible’ scenario, in which they have to decide once and for all whether they are going to keep the Confidence-&-Supply Arrangement with the Government going. They must now seriously consider supporting a Parliamentary Vote of No Confidence in the Government, if one is called. Because if they do not support it, they are stuck with May’s Brexit plan until long, long after time runs out at the end of March. They will be powerless to prevent the dreaded ‘Backstop’ if May is still in 10 Downing Street in April 2019.

And some Tory rebels on the Brexit-extremes may even contemplate supporting it too, for the same reason.

In short, this was a really good outcome for opposition parties, and it makes the possibility of forcing a new General Election stronger, not weaker.


Miles May Hem

The evil Miles May Hem, from the MASK cartoons

2 Responses to “Cheer up, Labour and other opposition parties – last night was PERFECT for you”

  1. Yep! Looks more like a Brexit No Deal is possible. In any case, the nation voted for a plain good-to-honest Brexit in the EU Referendum of 2016. Us Brexit winners didn’t expect Remain to butt in and start demanding deals and conditions and stuff that kept us in the EU. So, butt out you Remainiacs and STOP trying to overturn our democratic Brexit.

    • Martin Odoni Says:

      I’m trying to figure out whether this incredibly arrogant comment is meant to be a parody of a Brexiteer, or the real thing. The problem is that it’s so difficult to exaggerate how ignorant and yobbish they can be. I shall assume it’s genuine for now.

      “Remain”, which you rather stupidly seem to think is some kind of hive mind, isn’t ‘butting in’. This is the Remain supporters’ country every bit as much as it is yours, and they have every right to have their concerns over Brexit taken into account before we leave the EU. It is not ‘none of their business’ what happens to the country in the next few months just because they lost a referendum, and it’s incredible that you are effectively telling all Remain voters to shut up, in the name of being “democratic”! Freedom of speech, as usual with Brexiteers, only extends to those who agree with them.

      You arrogant Brextremists need to get this into your heads; YOU are dragging other people out of the EU against their wishes. YOU are altering the citizenship and rights of people who have no wish to relinquish them. The least you can do is therefore show some manners and understanding to the people you are putting through all this. Remember, you are every bit as British today, while in the EU, as the British people of the 1960s were before joining. Your nationality is not taken away from you by being inside the European Union, but Remainers’ membership of the EU is being taken away from them by the withdrawal from it. If you don’t want that membership, fine, you can just refuse to exercise your rights and privileges of EU membership without having to leave altogether. But Remainers *have* to be in the EU in order to keep their rights. They are having their rights and privileges ripped from them just to serve your xenophobia.

      So sure, you ‘won’ (congratulations, I’m sure, are you expecting to be awarded the FA Cup or something?), but learn to show a bit more respect to the people you are depriving in order to get your way.

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: