230 – wow.

January 15, 2019

by Martin Odoni

Not exactly a shock that Theresa May’s Brexit deal was voted down in the House of Commons tonight, but good grief, did anyone picture such an annihilation? Just 202 MPs voted in favour – and May can count herself lucky that three Labour MPs rebelled to support the deal and get the ‘Ayes’ past 200 – and 432 voted against.

brexit vote in parliament - breakdown

The way they voted, 15th January 2019

This is unprecedented. The size of the Government’s support was comfortably less than half its total opponents. With 118 on the Government benches rebelling, the total number of Tories favouring May’s deal was substantially less than two-thirds. Every Liberal Democrat, every Scottish National Party member, every Plaid Cymru member, every Democratic Unionist, and the sole Green MP, all voted against the deal.

Most of us have known since the details were published that May’s deal was dead in the water – many of us suspected it back in June 2017 come to that – but surely none of us thought that it would be beaten this decisively? My personal projection was that May would lose by about 80 votes, which would still have been a powerful blow, and I thought anything near 200 was on the barest fringe of the possible. But two hundred-and-thirty? That is absolutely extraordinary, and the biggest defeat in the Commons for an incumbent Government ever.

Since the catastrophic Conservative backfire of the 2017 General Election, this administration has been a zombie Government. Now it is not even that. It is no Government at all, it is just a giant hole in the air of Westminster and Whitehall. It has no right to exist, and no function left except to keep itself in office. Having suffered the humiliation of the biggest defeat any Prime Minister has ever conceded, Theresa May, if she truly had any honour at all, would accept that she has to resign. But of course she does not, and so of course, she will not.

This is yet another victory for Jeremy Corbyn of course – he scores a surprisingly large number of them for a supposedly ‘useless’ Leader of the Opposition – and a victory that, had it been achieved by Tony Blair in the 1990s, would have been hailed as one of the greatest in the history of Opposition Leaders. Which of course it is, but as usual, Corbyn is being damned with faint praise at best in the media. He has at last tabled the expected motion-of-no-confidence in the Government, judging rightly that now is the likeliest time for it to succeed – certainly likelier than it was before Christmas. The odds are still against it, especially as Tory rebels and DUP MPs have reaffirmed that they will continue to oppose it. But if nothing else, this move keeps the Government on the defensive at a time when it is reeling.

As for Brexit, where can we go from here? I think the UK now has to apply for an extension to Article-50. We are basically back at the metaphorical ‘drawing board’ in terms of a withdrawal agreement, and that means we need a lot more time than the two-and-a-half months that are left before we have departed the European Union. But even then, the EU are less-than-sympathetic about the idea of renegotiating, after the enormous amount of time May has wasted, and they are now pushing for the UK to abandon Brexit once and for all.

I am as pro-democracy as they come, and I have done my best to accept the outcome of the 2016 referendum. But still, it is getting more and more difficult to argue with the idea of calling the whole wretched business off, is it not?

Oh well. “Coalition of chaos”, and all that.

12th doctor 1st doctor and strong & stable may

More of a joke than ever, isn’t it?